🌀🗞 The FLUX Review, Ep. 185
April 10th, 2025
Episode 185 — April 10th, 2025 — Available at read.fluxcollective.org/p/185
Contributors to this issue: Neel Mehta, Boris Smus, Erika Rice Scherpelz, Justin Quimby, MK
Additional insights from: Ade Oshineye, Alex Komoroske, Ben Mathes, Chris Butler, Dart Lindsley, Dimitri Glazkov, Jasen Robillard, Jon Lebensold, Julka Almquist, Kamran Hakiman, Lisie Lillianfeld, Melanie Kahl, Robinson Eaton, Samuel Arbesman, Scott Schaffter, Spencer Pitman, Wesley Beary
We’re a ragtag band of systems thinkers who have been dedicating our early mornings to finding new lenses to help you make sense of the complex world we live in. This newsletter is a collection of patterns we’ve noticed in recent weeks.
“The trouble with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and trying to put things in it.”
— Terry Pratchett
⛴️⏳ Controlling the chokepoints
Complex systems are tangled places. They have checks and balances. They have competing centers of power. It’s hard for a single actor to exert much influence, often by design. However, this can change if you discover the chokepoints: single places where all communications or scarce resources flow.
We can explore the mechanisms that govern chokepoints. Imagine an island where trade flows through a single port. If you control it, you have a lot of power over the system.
Chokepoints are single points of failure: block the port and trade will stall.
They are bottlenecks: the flow of goods on or off the island is limited by the port’s throughput.
They are hubs for rent-seeking: start taxing goods at the port, and you can make a pretty penny.
It’s not all bad, though. Chokepoints can provide opportunities for improvement as well.
Improve the efficiency of transferring cargo, and you’ve found a leverage point where a little push can boost the whole island’s economy.
Chokepoints are great places for reform. By building medical facilities for sailors, you might reduce the spread of disease to residents.
Observing the chokepoints can help you study the system more effectively. The flow of goods through the port can give a good estimate of the overall island economy.
Chokepoints change over time. Pressure builds up until the system routes around them and competing sources of power pop up. Someone may build a second one if the port gets congested (or the taxes ruinous).
It's worth mapping out potential chokepoints when trying to understand or change a system. That said, finding influenceable chokepoints can be more challenging than you might think. Because they are so powerful (and profitable), they may be intentionally hidden or protected. Geography could keep us from building a second port… but so could regulations influenced by those in power.
Once discovered, many ways exist to change the system around a chokepoint. You could eliminate it, make it more efficient, or route around it.
Other times, you may counterintuitively want to introduce a chokepoint. This can control the flow of power or establish oversight. Perhaps it makes sense to restrict cargo that includes plants or animals that may upset the delicate island ecosystem.
A word of warning: when we see a chokepoint, we may be tempted by hamfisted interventions. I would simply… style solutions. These rarely work. You might aim to reduce smuggling at the port by thoroughly inspecting every ship, but that will slow things down to a crawl. A better approach could be risk-based spot checks.
So approach systems with humility. Don’t try to sculpt them. Dance with them.
🛣️🚩 Signposts
Clues that point to where our changing world might lead us.
🚏📇 Old man trading cards are all the rage in a small Japanese town
To help “strengthen the connection between the children and the older generations” in the small Japanese town of Kawara, a local councilman launched a series of trading cards highlighting the volunteer or public service work of old or middle-aged men (ojisan) in town. Each man’s card has a Pokémon-style type related to his work (the former fire brigade chief is a Fire type) as well as moves it can use to battle other cards. The handmade cards have been a hit with kids: youngsters have been flocking to town gatherings and volunteering at community events for a chance to meet the ojisans, and participation in these events has reportedly doubled since the cards launched. The cards’ creator described the appeal of the cards well: “heroes you can meet.”
🚏📉 A fake “Bloomberg” tweet about a tariff pause sent stocks surging (then crashing)
A “verified” but anonymous Twitter/X user called “Walter Bloomberg,” who had gained a substantial following from posting Bloomberg wire updates, tweeted that the White House was considering “a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except for China.” Stock prices instantly surged, and within minutes CNBC anchors were sharing the ‘news’ live on air. But the administration quickly denied the claim, which sent stocks plunging again. The news was indeed fake, and CNBC and Reuters had to retract their articles on the matter — and Bloomberg (the company) quickly disavowed any connection to Walter.
🚏🚯 Indian shop owners are making “Frankenstein” laptops out of scrap components
India is a global hub for e-waste processing, and a huge informal economy has emerged around it: people comb through the waste and pick up cracked screens, busted motherboards, worn-out batteries, and the like. These scrap parts make their way to Indian cities’ bustling markets, where electronics shop owners cobble them together into working computers and phones — which can cost up to 80% less than a new device. These “hybrid” devices are a boon to students, small business owners, and other Indians hoping to join the country’s booming online economy.
📖⏳ Worth your time
Some especially insightful pieces we’ve read, watched, and listened to recently.
The Triumph of the Operator (Secretary of Defense Rock) — Argues that, ever since the War on Terror, American political and military leaders have become obsessed with special forces like the Navy SEALs while ignoring the importance of logistics, collaboration, intelligence, and diplomacy. “The tactical brilliance of small units cannot replace the operational and strategic necessities of large-scale conflict and relying on them as a primary solution is a recipe for strategic failure.”
LLMs are Weird Computers (Phillip Carter) — Argues that LLMs can do many of the same things as normal computers (they’re general purpose, can run applications, can be reprogrammed, and can interact with other systems) but in an inverse way: “if traditional computers are precision machines that struggle with fuzziness, LLMs are… fuzzy machines that struggle with precision.”
Why Thailand’s Geography Breeds Instability (Polymatter / YouTube) — Observes that countries with “primate cities” (where a country’s political, economic, and cultural power are centralized in one place, like Mexico City, London, or Bangkok) are more susceptible to coups and revolutions, because seizing power is as simple as seizing the capital. In Thailand, arguably the world’s coup capital, “Bangkok is a single, imperative chokepoint, whose capture or disruption can cause every category of chaos across the rest of the nation.”
The ‘3.5% Rule’: How A Small Minority Can Change the World (BBC) — Describes political science research that found that, when 3.5% of the population “actively participates” in non-violent protests, regime change is nearly guaranteed. The non-violent part is key: peaceful protests succeed 53% of the time, compared to just 26% of the time for violent protests. (Why? Non-violence increases the international legitimacy of the protests and makes it harder for the regime to justify military crackdowns.)
📚🛋️ Book for your shelf
A book that will help you dip your toes into systems thinking or explore its broader applications.
This week, we recommend Capital in the Twenty First Century by Thomas Piketty, translator Arthur Goldhammer (2014, 704 pages).
Capital in the 21st Century is a detailed, data-driven study of economic inequality, tracking the historical relationship between capital returns and economic growth. Some books are worth reading for their content; whether you agree with Piketty’s conclusions or not, this one certainly is. But what makes this book especially interesting is something more meta.
This book offers a rare opportunity to engage with a long, highly technical argument that remains accessible without being oversimplified. Reading Capital in the Twenty First Century isn’t just about learning economic history—it’s about practicing the skill of working through dense but meaningful ideas. The book rewards patience, offering a chance to experience how a rigorous argument unfolds over hundreds of pages.
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