🌀🗞 The FLUX Review, Ep. 164

October 3rd, 2024

Oct 04, 2024

Episode 164 — October 3rd, 2024 — Available at read.fluxcollective.org/p/164

Contributors to this issue: Dart Lindsley, Erika Rice Scherpelz, Spencer Pitman, Justin Quimby, Jasen Robillard, Ade Oshineye, Wesley Beary, Boris Smus, Neel Mehta, MK

Additional insights from: Ben Mathes, Dimitri Glazkov, Alex Komoroske, Robinson Eaton, Julka Almquist, Scott Schaffter, Lisie Lillianfeld, Samuel Arbesman, Jon Lebensold, Melanie Kahl, Kamran Hakiman, Chris Butler

We’re a ragtag band of systems thinkers who have been dedicating our early mornings to finding new lenses to help you make sense of the complex world we live in. This newsletter is a collection of patterns we’ve noticed in recent weeks.

“He who completes a quest does not merely find something. He becomes something.”
— Lev Grossman

👾🌫️ Questing for the unseen

It’s (video) game time! Your character wakes up. You have no idea where you are or what the rules are. As you act, you piece together the game mechanics, learning which actions lead to rewards and which to danger. Yet, as you explore, some elements remain elusive — unpredictable glitches, the designer’s intent, what other players do. The meta, the quest for the unseen, illustrates the difference between the unknown (hidden but recoverable with effort) and the unknowable (remaining beyond reach, an inherent part of the game’s mystery).

In life, we face a similar challenge. We strive to understand our environment, predict outcomes, and make decisions. Much of what we encounter is unknown: things we don’t understand — yet! — but can potentially learn. However, there are also the unknowables: aspects of reality that resist all attempts at comprehension, no matter how much we learn. The unknowns are like undiscovered parts of the game map; eventually, we can reveal them with enough exploration. We can research, experiment, and learn voraciously and expand our understanding. The unknowables, however, are like glitches in the game’s code: unpredictable or uncontrollable, no matter how much we learn… although, weirdly, sometimes exploitable.

Sometimes, what seems unknowable is a matter of perspective. While some mysteries are eternal, others, like cultural blind spots, appear unknowable but are unknown. We can’t see these blind spots due to our current viewpoint — they’re unknown now, but with a shift in perspective or new knowledge, we might uncover them. Eternal mysteries, by contrast, are the things we can never fully grasp.

The challenge isn’t just to explore the unknown but also to recognize what is unknowable. While some parts of the “game” of life can be mapped out with effort, others are meant to remain mysterious, defying our attempts to grok them. The quest for the unseen deepens our appreciation of the world’s complexities. It encourages us to stay curious and adaptable. It reminds us of the importance of humility. Some aspects of reality will always be beyond our control.

We must balance our quest for knowledge with the acceptance that not all can be known. By embracing both the unknown and the unknowable, we can navigate what’s in front of us more effectively, finding meaning and gratitude not just in what we discover but also in the mysteries that remain.

🛣️🚩 Signposts

Clues that point to where our changing world might lead us.

🚏🌀 Hurricane Helene wrecked a town that’s essential to the AI supply chain

Spruce Pine, a town of 2,000 people in western North Carolina, was among many cities devastated by Hurricane Helene. The town is one of the only places in the world that can mine high-purity quartz, which is needed to make silicon chips, so experts worry that the damage could plunge the semiconductor industry into “another crisis,” coming hot on the heels of the global chip shortage during the pandemic. This could spell particular trouble for the AI boom, which has relied heavily on chips that use quartz from Spruce Pine.

🚏🍴 Startups are using “fair source” licenses to avoid competitors cloning their tech

Many tech startups release their software under open-source licenses, but a growing number have been worrying about competitors copying their software. For instance, consider the controversy surrounding a startup that cloned a rival AI-powered IDE and tried to pass it off as their own. So, a group of tech companies is moving from open-source to a new class of “fair source” licenses, which are like open-source but have two key restrictions: you can’t use it to launch a competing product, and you must eventually make derivative software open-source. One critic pointed out that this setup is vague (what exactly counts as ‘competing’, and what restrictions are allowed?), and by definition it doesn’t give everyone equal rights.

🚏🚂 The UK is shutting down its last coal power plant

The United Kingdom, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and home of the world’s first coal-fired power plant, is ending its reliance on coal 142 years after its first coal plant opened. Britain has shifted convincingly to wind, solar, and gas, and its last coal-fired power plant will stop operations on Monday. The move to renewables has been so successful that the plant’s closing date was actually moved forward by a year.

🚏🗳️ Americans can now bet on the outcome of US congressional elections

A New York-based prediction markets startup called Kalshi started letting Americans bet on which party would win the House or Senate. A federal appeals court had previously blocked the move, but it recently reversed course, allowing Kalshi to continue taking these bets (at least temporarily). The court said it could reinstate the ban if it found “new evidence of serious harm to the public interest.”

📖⏳ Worth your time

Some especially insightful pieces we’ve read, watched, and listened to recently.

Hurricanes Have a Longer, Deadlier Tail Than Anyone Thought (Heatmap) — Reviews a study that found that the vast majority of hurricane-related deaths occur after the storm dissipates, lasting for up to 10–15 years after the fact. The high cost of reconstruction diverts money from other parts of state budgets, which can indirectly defund hospitals; storm-related stress can increase cancer and heart disease rates; and the disruption to communities and social networks can make people more vulnerable, both medically and financially.
Do Quests, Not Goals (Raptitude) — Observes that “goal” has become an uninspiring, institutional word that requires a rebranding; the word “quest” instills the right mentality for achieving a real-life personal victory and also has a grander scope and different expectations. You expect a quest to take you into a new landscape with puzzles, surprises, perils, and curious encounters. Ultimately, you expect it to be transformative.
The Missing Middle: Supply vs. Aesthetics in the Drive for New Housing (Governing) — Argues that the popular “missing middle” approach to housing (building duplexes or small apartment buildings on former single-family lots) has the right idea but risks drawing unnecessary backlash from people in single-family neighborhoods. Instead, a more effective way to spend political capital is to reduce minimum lot sizes and increase the maximum allowed building height, thus cheaply expanding the available square footage.
Decision Makers (2004) (Chris Hayes) — A classic essay from the current MSNBC anchor, who argues that undecided voters don’t think in the way that pundits, politicians, or hyper-informed voters do: they don’t decide based on issues (in fact, many don’t think in terms of “issues” at all), they don’t enjoy politics, and they often don’t know what kinds of grievances are ‘political’ or not to begin with.

🔍🍦 Lens of the week

Introducing new ways to see the world and new tools to add to your mental arsenal.

This week’s lens: the cone of uncertainty.

How much transit will a city need 50 years from now? Or 25, 5, or 2 years from now? The further out we look, the more uncertainties about population growth, technological advancements (like self-driving cars), and economic shifts widen the range of possible outcomes, making long-term planning a challenging and adaptable process.

This illustrates the cone of uncertainty, which helps us understand how the unknown transitions to the known. Imagine a cone starting at a single predictable point in the present, widening as it extends into more uncertainty. In the near term, predictions are relatively clear and reliable. As the cone widens exponentially, the range of possible outcomes increases, reflecting the growing uncertainty of long-term forecasts.

Viewing the future through the cone of uncertainty encourages flexible planning and decision-making. Rather than locking into a single predicted outcome, it’s essential to recognize that multiple scenarios are possible. This means preparing for a range of possibilities, building adaptability into our strategies, and staying ready to adjust as new information emerges. Scenario planning is a powerful tool in these circumstances.

The cone of uncertainty reminds us that looking into the future is not about predicting what will happen next but rather about becoming flexible to adapt to many possible outcomes and developing a sense of which ones are more plausible.

🌀🗞 The FLUX Review